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| #1186844 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 PM 30.Jun.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 There are a few pieces of evidence that show that Beryl is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The clear eye seen on infrared satellite earlier today has become a little more clouded over during the past few hours. In addition, data from the last leg through Beryl from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicated concentric eyewalls, which also matches current radar imagery we are receiving from Barbados Meteorological Service. An earlier SSMIS microwave pass at 2150 UTC also showed a formative outer moat forming outside the small inner eyewall. In response to the evolving structure, 700-mb flight-level winds from the NOAA and Air Force planes are a little lower than observed earlier today, and the latest round of Dvorak estimates also support a slightly lower intensity. However, the initial intensity will remain at 115 kt for this advisory, given a couple of dropsonde observations in the NE quadrant of Beryl`s inner eyewall. Aircraft fixes indicate Beryl continues to move quickly westward at 280/17 kt. There isn`t much change with the track forecast philosophy, as a extensive mid-level ridge poleward of Beryl should maintain its westward to west-northwest motion for the next few days as it move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea. The ridge does become positioned more northwest of Beryl towards the end of the forecast period, potentially allowing the hurricane to slow down gradually once it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance this cycle is quite similar to the previous cycle, and thus the latest NHC track forecast is also quite similar to the prior advisory. Given the evolution to Beryl`s inner core structure tonight due to the aforementioned ERC, it would not be surprising to see a short-term fluctuation down in Beryl`s peak winds, though Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it crosses through the Windward Islands tomorrow morning. In fact, there could also be a bit of restrengthening after the ERC completes in the northwestern Caribbean, and that is reflected in the short-term forecast. After 48 hours, a subtle upper-level trough to Beryl`s north could induce a bit more westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane, and some gradual weakening continues to be shown after 48 hours. However, it should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region, though more prominent weakening is likely if Beryl crosses the Yucatan between days 4-5 as shown in the latest forecast. The NHC intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids, and is only slightly adjusted from the prior advisory. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands tomorrow morning. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. These preparations should have been completed today as significant impacts will begin tomorrow morning. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life- threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will likely be required this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 12.2N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 14.8N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 15.9N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 16.7N 75.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 17.6N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Papin |
