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| #1186889 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 01.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Beryl appears to be in the late stages of an eyewall replacement cycle, with the Barbados radar showing a larger eye becoming dominant with only a small portion of the inner eye left over. While the earlier aircraft data suggested the system could have weakened below 105 kt, the recent re-organization seen on radar and satellite imagery support leaving the initial wind speed at 105 kt. A pair of aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA should be in the hurricane later this morning for another assessment of the intensity and structure. It should be noted that while Beryl`s maximum winds have slightly decreased overnight, the area of stronger winds has grown, so the hazards of the hurricane are likely to affect a larger area. The hurricane continues to move at 280/17 kt, but there are signs that a west-northwestward turn is beginning. A faster west-northwestward motion should occur through mid-week due to Beryl encountering stronger low-level flow. The hurricane is forecast to turn more westward beyond that point due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The most notable change in the long-range guidance is that the bulk of the models is showing a stronger ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, which keeps Beryl considerably farther south in those solutions. This is a pretty big change from earlier so I don`t want to bite off on that evolution just yet, and the new NHC forecast will just take a step toward the model consensus for continuity purposes. Beryl has a chance today to re-strengthen now that the eyewall cycle is close to completion and the vertical wind shear remains low. Little change was made to the previous forecast in the short term. However, a marked increase in westerly shear is coming in a couple of days as the low-level flow increases and the upper-level flow weakens. This pattern is likely to cause the hurricane to weaken over the central Caribbean, although the guidance is in poor agreement on how much, with the latest cycle showing a weaker Beryl in the western Caribbean. There is quite a disparity in the upper-level pattern shown by the ECMWF and GFS in the long range as Beryl enters the vicinity, so the new forecast is only slightly adjusts downward for 48 hours and beyond, remaining above the model consensus. It is too soon to discuss what could happen with Beryl if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands this morning. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life- threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning later this morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands today. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will likely be required this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.7N 59.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 12.6N 62.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.9N 66.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 70.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 16.8N 77.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 17.4N 81.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 18.4N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
