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| #1186913 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 01.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE BERYL HAS STRENGTHENED TO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 60.5W ABOUT 70 MI...125 KM E OF GRENADA ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the island. The government of Dominica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Trinidad * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d`Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands this morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early this morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are occurring or imminent in the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting this morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
