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| #1186972 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 01.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, DANGEROUS WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 63.2W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for those islands. The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast from Punta Palenque westward to the border of Haiti. The Tropical Storm Watch for the south coast of Haiti has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Trinidad and Tobago has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * St. Lucia * Martinique * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d`Hainault A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 63.2 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). The center of Beryl will continue moving away from the southern Windward Islands tonight and move quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions will continue in the southern Windward Islands over the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola by late Tuesday. STORM SURGE: Water levels should recede into the evening over the southern Windward Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across the Windward Islands through this evening. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
