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| #1186974 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 01.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Beryl has maintained a very impressive satellite appearance this afternoon. The well-defined, symmetric eye is surrounded by a ring of infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. The central pressure of the hurricane was falling throughout the day while the Hurricane Hunters sampled the storm, with the last aircraft pass showing the central pressure had fallen to around 946 mb. The latest objective (ADT/AiDT) and subjective (TAFB/SAB) satellite intensity estimates still support an intensity between 125 to 130 kt, which lies in between the earlier reduced flight-level winds and SFMR retrievals from the aircraft. Thus, the initial intensity of Beryl is held at 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward (290/18-kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next several days, bringing the center of the hurricane across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is greater with more ensemble spread during this period. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again this evening. While some intensity fluctuations are possible in the near term, the official NHC forecast shows little intensity change through tonight. An increase in mid-level westerly shear is still forecast by midweek, and this should cause some weakening while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. However, Beryl is still forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Once again, there is increased uncertainty later in the forecast period regarding the extent of land interaction and vertical depth of the cyclone once it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the southwestern Gulf. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, dangerous waves, and heavy rainfall are expected to continue through this evening while the core of Beryl pulls away from the southern Windward Islands. 2. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the south coast of Hispaniola. Hurricane conditions are possible in Jamaica on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.2N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 69.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.3N 73.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 77.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 17.9N 80.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 18.3N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
