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| #1187088 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 02.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition, satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt. The initial motion is a quick 285/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in 24-36 h and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 72 h. After that, there is a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States. Thus, there remains considerable uncertainty in the track forecast during the latter part of the forecast period. The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica. However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of the Cayman Islands and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. 2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday. 3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 68.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.2N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
