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| #1187160 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 02.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Beryl this evening. Data from the aircraft suggest that Beryl hasn`t weakened very much so far. Flight-level winds indicate that the intensity is still near 130 kt. Satellite- derived intensity estimates are below this value, and the eye has become a little less well-defined on the imagery. The rapid west-northwestward motion continues, at around 290/19 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Beryl should continue to steer the system on a west-northwestward heading across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days. This motion should bring the center near Jamaica in 12 to 24 hours, near the Cayman Islands in 24 to 36 hours, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 48 to 60 hours. Beyond 72 hours, when Beryl should be located over the western Gulf of Mexico, the track model spread increases. Therefore there is significant uncertainty in the 4- and 5-day forecast points, when the system encounters a weakness in the ridge. There is also considerable uncertainty in the future intensity of Beryl. Vertical shear, associated with an upper-level low near the Yucatan Channel, should increase over Beryl during the next day or so. Therefore some weakening seems likely during the next 48 hours. However, the system should maintain hurricane strength while it moves over the northwestern Caribbean. Later in the forecast period, when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico, it is not clear how much the cyclone will re-intensify, but it should at least be close to hurricane intensity around that time. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday. 3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.2N 72.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 20.1N 88.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 22.7N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON COAST $$ Forecaster Pasch |
