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| #1187190 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Beryl appears to be experiencing the effects of moderate northwesterly shear. The eye has become cloud-filled, and the hurricane`s cloud pattern is elongated northeast to southwest. Still, very deep convection is present in the eyewall and the core of the hurricane remains intact. Data from an earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft had maximum flight-level winds of 136 kt and a slightly higher minimum central pressure than the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, pending data from the next set of reconnaissance aircraft. The intensity forecast remains rather challenging. The uncertainty starts right away due to noticeable discrepancies in the short-term evolution of the upper-level flow in the global models. The ECMWF global model predicts strong westerly flow from an upper-level trough that would significantly increase the shear over Beryl in the next 24 h and result in rapid weakening. However, the GFS model shows a very different upper-level wind pattern that would result in only moderate vertical wind shear near Beryl and thus, less weakening. The official forecast shows a blend of these solutions and general weakening through 48 h. It should be emphasized that Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Jamaica in the next 12 h, the Cayman Islands early on Thursday, and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. As Beryl emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Mexico in about 72 h, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build closer to the storm, and more numerical model guidance is showing restrengthening. The official forecast now shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before making landfall along the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and lies a bit below the model consensus. The hurricane has continued its rapid pace across the central Caribbean at around 285/17 kt. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The core of the hurricane should pass near or just south of Jamaica later today, with little change to the forecast near Yucatan. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the storm should turn northwestward as a trough moving over the central US weakens the ridge over the weekend. There is still significant uncertainty in the long-term track forecast, as numerical models showing stronger storms in the Gulf of Mexico are generally on the northern side of the guidance envelope and weaker storms on the southern side. The NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, near the multi-model consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica beginning this afternoon and in the Cayman Islands early on Thursday. Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today. 3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.6N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.3N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 19.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 20.1N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z 21.1N 91.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 25.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake |
