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| #1187267 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 03.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 While westerly shear continues to affect Beryl, the central core of the hurricane has made a bit of a comeback this afternoon with the eye becoming better defined in Cuban radar data and re-appearing in satellite imagery. Whether this has resulted in any re-intensification is unclear, so the initial intensity will be held at 120 kt pending the arrival of the next reconnaissance aircraft. The Cuban radar data shows that northern eyewall is brushing the southern coast of Jamaica at this time, with hurricane conditions occurring mainly on the south side of the island. The initial motion is now 285/17. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica during the next few hours and south of the Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, Beryl should turn northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid-latitude trough over the central United States. There is a bit better agreement in the track guidance this cycle, as the GFS has shifted its track a little southward and the ECMWF has shifted its track a little northward. Based on this and other guidance, the 96- and 120-h points have been shifted a little to the southwest of the previous forecast. However, there is still uncertainty during this part of the forecast, and a landfall in Texas cannot yet be ruled out. Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan. This portion of the intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance. However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The cyclone should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan. The intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica over the next several hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind gusts. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today. 3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions of that area. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 77.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 19.2N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.9N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0600Z 20.9N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 93.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 96.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 26.0N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven |
