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| #1187289 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 03.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MOVING NEAR SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 78.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Catoche to Progresso in the Yucatan Peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Progresso A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Progresso to Campeche A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located just offshore of the southwest part of Jamaica near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 78.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl just south of Cayman Islands tonight and over the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn northwestward. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions continue across southwestern portions of Jamaica and in the mountainous areas. Tropical storm conditions are occurring elsewhere on the island. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands late tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the next couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Central America on Thursday and to eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen |
