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| #1187305 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 03.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BERYL PULLING AWAY FROM JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.2W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from Progreso to Campeche and issued a Hurricane Warning for Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 79.2 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl just south of Cayman Islands overnight and over the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn northwestward. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two, however, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across the extreme southwestern portions of Jamaica and in the mountainous areas for another few hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring elsewhere on the island. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands overnight, with tropical storm conditions beginning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through Wednesday evening. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands through Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Central America on Thursday and to eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen |
