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| #1187343 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 04.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to have a large area of strong convection near the center, although the overall cloud pattern has become less symmetric. This matches the radar imagery from Grand Cayman which shows a well-defined eyewall on the northern side but remains open on the southern side. There isn`t much reason to believe that the gradual filling seen in the last aircraft mission has stopped, and the initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, a bit lower than what the last aircraft data supported. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters should be in the cyclone within a few hours for a better intensity estimate. Beryl appears to be moving west-northwestward or 285/17 kt. Overall, there are no significant changes to the track forecast. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next couple of days. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a course toward the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday and emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico early Saturday. The western periphery of the ridge is forecast to weaken due to a series of shortwaves moving over the Central Plains, causing Beryl to slow down and turn northwestward this weekend. While there isn`t an atypical amount of track spread by the time Beryl impacts the western Gulf Coast early next week, the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles, so it is too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new NHC forecast is close to the model consensus and the previous forecast. Water vapor images show a upper-level trough moving west- southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, helping to impart moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the hurricane has been an over-performer so far, this magnitude of shear should cause notable weakening over the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane near the Yucatan tomorrow. After emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, Beryl will likely have a couple of days to re-strengthen over warm waters with light or moderate shear. Almost all of the model guidance show the system near hurricane strength as Beryl approaches the western Gulf Coast, and so does the official forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one, but should be considered of low confidence due to the inherent uncertainties of intensity forecasts in moderate shear. Key Messages: 1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of flooding are expected to occur in the Cayman Islands today where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. 2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions of that area. 3. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.5N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1800Z 22.3N 93.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 23.3N 95.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 25.2N 97.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR COAST 120H 09/0600Z 27.0N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake |
