|
Show Selection: |
| #1187417 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 04.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that left the storm around 17Z reported that the central pressure had risen to near 974 mb, and also reported flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of 95 kt. Since that time, as happened yesterday afternoon, despite the ongoing shear the eye has become better defined in both satellite imagery and in radar data from Grand Cayman and Cuba. Given this increase in central core organization, the initial intensity will be held at 95 kt pending the arrival of the next aircraft near 00Z. Satellite imagery also shows that the outflow has become better defined in the northeastern semicircle. The initial motion is 285/17, although the last several satellite images suggest a westward wobble is in progress. There is again little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next day or so, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in 12-18 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at around 30 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the western Gulf coast between 72-96 h. There is still some spread in the track guidance regarding a landfall location, with the range of possibilities from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast. Users are reminded that the average track forecast error at day 3 is about 100 miles and at day 4 is about 150 miles, and so it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is a little north of the previous forecast through 24 h and similar to the previous forecast after that. It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear has somewhat abated. The intensity forecast follows the premise that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken before landfall. However, even the intensity guidance that forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional weakening should occur while the center is over land. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf coast. It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to intensify before that time. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. 3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.5N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 86.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 21.6N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 22.6N 93.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven |
