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| #1187452 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 04.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 The weakening trend of Beryl has reversed this evening. Satellite images show that the eye has occasionally been evident and the eyewall is about two-thirds closed based on Cancun radar images and reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Data from the reconnaissance mission indicated that Beryl has strengthened back to a dangerous category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of about 100 kt. The minimum pressure has fallen about 10 mb from this afternoon to 964 mb. The aircraft also indicated that Beryl remains compact, and it is actually a little smaller than previously estimated. The hurricane has turned westward and slowed down slightly on the south side of a ridge centered over the southeastern U.S., with the latest initial motion estimated to be 275/14 kt. Beryl is expected to maintain that general motion during the next 12 hours, which should cause it to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula very near Tulum early Friday morning. Most of the models show the center remaining over land for about 18 hours, and then emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. Around that time, Beryl is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down some more as it moves along the western periphery of the weakening ridge and toward a trough over the south-central U.S. Although the models are in fair agreement, there is still some spread in exactly how sharp the system turns northwestward, and to a large degree the structure and intensity of Beryl will be a notable factor on its track over the Gulf. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, following the trend in the latest models. It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it reaches the coast. Once the core moves inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by the time it exits the Yucatan. Assuming the system is able to maintain some elements of an inner core, gradual re-intensification seems likely before it makes its final landfall in northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. The NHC intensity forecast again lies near the high end of the models and continues to show Beryl becoming a hurricane again over the western Gulf. Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, so it is too soon to pinpoint where the largest impacts will be. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are forecast to begin within the next few hours across the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Residents there should shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued on Friday. 3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 85.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.0N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 21.9N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/0000Z 22.9N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 23.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 24.7N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 26.8N 98.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 28.9N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
