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| #1187468 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 05.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...CONDITIONS TO SOON DETERIORATE FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 86.2W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 86.2 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected while Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). The minimum central pressure of 971 mb (28.67 inches) is based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength shortly, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast this morning and over the Yucatan Gulf coast later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize this morning. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, through today across the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated across the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin |
