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| #1187707 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 06.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Recently, a convective burst has developed near the center of Beryl in the northwestern quadrant, and the low-level center is for the moment no longer exposed. Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA aircraft suggests that the cyclone has become better aligned vertically during the past few hours, likely due to the effects of this burst. Reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure is now near 997 mb, with the Air Force plane reporting severe turbulence in the convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory based on the flight-level and SFMR wind data from the two aircraft. The initial motion is 300/10 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a developing mid-latitude trough over the central United States that is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over Texas. Beryl is expected to turn northwest later today, then turn northward by 48-60 h into the break, with the center making landfall on the Texas coast. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently expected after 72 h. The forecast guidance has not changed much since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is basically an update of the previous track. The new track lies between the main consensus models and the HCCA corrected consensus model. Beryl remains in an area of about 15 kt of southerly vertical shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air over the southern semicircle of the cyclone. This combination suggests the possibility that the current convective burst will weaken later today. After 24 h, the shear is forecast to diminish, and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that significant strengthening should occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows only modest strengthening during the first 24 h, followed by intensification to hurricane strength before landfall in Texas. The peak intensity is based on the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with the system forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h. It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 48 hours is about 70 miles and the average intensity error is close to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast information. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge along portions of the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of deep south Texas and additional warnings will likely be required later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. 3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 23.0N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 23.7N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 24.9N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 27.7N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 29.3N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 30.9N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/1200Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/1200Z 36.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven |
