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| #1188085 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 08.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 39A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 700 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FROM BERYL... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 95.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from Mesquite Bay northward to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 95.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected as the center moves inland, and Beryl is expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today and to a tropical depression on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). San Bernard National Wildlife Refuge recently reported a wind gust of 87 mph (140 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). Bay City Regional Airport reported 980 mb (28.94 inches) inside the eye of Beryl about an hour ago. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the warning area at this time and will continue for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring elsewhere in the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the tropical storm warning area along the upper Texas coast and will continue during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O`Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-7 ft Matagorda Bay...4-7 ft San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft Galveston Bay...4-6 ft Mesquite Bay, TX to Port O`Connor, TX...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today into tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight along the upper Texas Coast, and several tornadoes are possible today across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
