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| #1191586 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 02.Aug.2024) TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest impacts. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend. 4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
