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| #1191672 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 02.Aug.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 79.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a slower motion toward the north and then the northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across Cuba overnight and on Saturday, and then move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday, potentially reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through Saturday. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
