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#1193470 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 12.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 55.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 55.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 58.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 62.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N 66.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.5N 67.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.7N 68.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 55.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART