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#1193629 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 13.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 62.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 62.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 64.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.3N 68.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.2N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N 65.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 34.9N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 62.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG