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#1193752 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 14.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 66.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 145SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 66.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 66.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 66.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE