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| #1193754 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 14.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM ERNESTO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 66.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through the morning hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later this morning and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A metar station at the Roosevelt Roads Naval Station (TJNR) recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). A NOAA Saildrone located about 65 miles north- northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
