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#1193903 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 15.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 55SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 69.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE