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#1193932 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 15.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 69.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE