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| #1193978 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 15.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 68.9W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde observation is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde |
