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#1194015 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 15.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 68.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 190SE 180SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI