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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#1194050 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 16.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 67.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 67.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 67.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N 64.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.2N 63.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 180SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 52.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 67.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE