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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#1194161 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 16.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 65.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 65.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 65.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 64.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 64.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 45.1N 54.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.3N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 185SE 180SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 54.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 200SE 120SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 65.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI