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| #1194285 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 17.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO INCHING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 64.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area Sunday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 64.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda through tonight, with hurricane-force gusts possible in rainbands. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island, especially in low-lying areas. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
