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| #1197300 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 08.Sep.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 ...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and additional watches or warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday. Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions . Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin |
