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| #1197686 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 10.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Francine tonight, and the data they collected were the basis for upgrading it to a hurricane a few hours ago. The maximum 700 mb flight-level wind measured was 76 kt, which supports an intensity of about 65 kt. The aircraft data also indicated that the minimum pressure has fallen several millibars to 980 mb. Deep convection has been increasing near the center, and radar images indicate that an inner core has developed. There is still some dry air, however, outside of the core region. Francine is starting to move a little faster to the northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 035/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough over Texas is approaching the hurricane, and that should cause it to accelerate northeastward toward the Louisiana coast, with landfall expected there late Wednesday afternoon or evening. After Francine moves inland, a turn to the north-northeast and a decrease in forward speed is predicted while it moves across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. The models are in good agreement, and little change was made to the previous track forecast. Now that Francine has a well organized core, significant strengthening seems likely through Wednesday morning while the system remains over very warm waters and in low wind shear conditions. The hurricane regional models are quite aggressive and show Francine strengthening quickly, while the dynamical-statistical models show much less intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is between those solutions and continues to show Francine nearing category 2 strength Wednesday morning. A notable increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening just before Francine reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after the cyclone moves inland. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Wednesday for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 26.4N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 29.7N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 32.0N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z 34.2N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/1200Z 35.5N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 36.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen |
