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| #1202148 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 06.Oct.2024) TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from 1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt. Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72 hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in 60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
