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| #1202356 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 07.Oct.2024) TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Milton. Earlier, the Hurricane Hunters found that the minimum central pressure in the eye had dropped to an estimated 897 mb. Based on this, Milton had the fifth lowest central pressure in the Atlantic basin hurricane record. Subsequent center penetrations by the aircraft indicated somewhat higher central pressures. Also, flight-level and dropsonde data from the aircraft suggested some decrease in intensity, and the advisory intensity is set to 145 kt. The decrease is likely the result of an eyewall replacement reported by the Hurricane Hunters, leading to a double wind maximum radially from the center. Notwithstanding, Milton still remains an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane. The initial motion is eastward, or 090/8 kt. Milton should continue to pass close to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Then, the flow on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed later on Tuesday and Wednesday. This motion should take the system across the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, Milton is expected to move east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S. coast while gradually losing tropical characteristics. The official track forecast is close to, but a little faster than, the model consensus. This is also very similar to the previous NHC forecast. As noted earlier, the track is closer to the model predicted fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. So long as Milton remains in an environment of light shear and over very high oceanic heat content, its maximum intensity should be governed more by inner-core fluctuations. However the SHIPS diagnostics indicate a significant increase in vertical wind shear within 24 hours, likely associated with increasing southwesterly upper-level flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore a decrease in intensity is predicted before Milton reaches the western coast of the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of the peak intensity, the eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to an expansion of the destructive inner core of the hurricane during the next day or two. The system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. 2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected Tuesday night through early Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 21.8N 89.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 22.3N 88.6W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 23.5N 86.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.0N 84.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 27.1N 83.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 28.6N 80.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 29.4N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 12/0000Z 30.3N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 31.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
