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| #1202560 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 08.Oct.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 86.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Dzilam to Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 86.5 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected overnight through Wednesday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 915 mb (27.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida through Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
