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| #1202675 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 09.Oct.2024) TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt. The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to 931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this advisory. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where Milton makes landfall. Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to where the raw model fields bring the center onshore. We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur. Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of hours. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly coming to a close. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |
