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| #130830 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 09.May.2007) TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007 1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007 ANDREA CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER. BECAUSE ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL MAKES ANDREA A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. ONLY A SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 30.5N 79.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 30.4N 80.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 80.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
