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| #130951 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 10.May.2007) TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007 500 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY ABSENT FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS...AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON ANDREA. THE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY TO RETURN EXCEPT PERHAPS IN INTERMITTENT BURSTS...SO ANDREA COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EDGE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHERE IT IS NOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON DAY 3. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CIRCULATION TO HAVE DISSIPATED. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO ANDREA...TAKE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON DAY 3...AND THEN BECOME THE FOCUS OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT COULD HAPPEN IF ANDREA REMAINS A DISTINCT CIRCULATION LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM REGARDLESS OF WHAT BECOMES OF ANDREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 29.6N 79.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 29.2N 79.8W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 79.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.2N 79.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.6N 78.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
