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| #133888 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 01.Jun.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS. INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION. BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BARRY SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND PANHANDLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 24.2N 85.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 26.5N 84.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1800Z 41.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ |
