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| #133939 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 01.Jun.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007 1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007 AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...STRONG SHEAR HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INDICATES THAT BARRY IS NOT CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED CENTER SURROUNDED BY A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS. BARRY SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CAUSED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE CENTER OF BARRY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER SINCE THE STORM IS NOT SYMMETRIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD REMAIN BEHIND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR BUT NONE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS PROVIDED THIS SOLUTION SO FAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 24.7N 84.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 27.3N 84.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/1200Z 33.0N 80.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0000Z 36.1N 76.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0000Z 42.0N 70.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0000Z ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
