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| #143665 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 30.Jul.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN MAINTAINING CONSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 15 HOURS OR SO. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...EXPOSED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HAS MADE A COUPLE OF FORAYS UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION...AND IS WELL-ENOUGH INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SHIP REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. WITH ANOTHER TWELVE HOURS OR SO OVER WARM WATERS...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH STORM STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY DEVELOPMENT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MINIMAL...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FRONTAL LOW WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/14. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC U.S. COAST WILL STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS GUIDANCE. THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 36.1N 66.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 38.2N 64.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 42.5N 60.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 01/1200Z 47.5N 52.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/0000Z 52.5N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0000Z 58.0N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0000Z 61.0N 23.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/0000Z 65.0N 15.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
