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| #143771 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 31.Jul.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007 CHANTAL IS MAINTAINING A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...ALBEIT WITH LESS DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE STORM SHOULD SOON BEGIN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE STORM SOON DECREASE BELOW 70F AND IT INTERACTS WITH COOLER AIR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. COMPUTER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AT THAT TIME. CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A 12 HOUR MOTION OF ABOUT 23 KT. A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE STORM OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CONTINUE THE STORM'S MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECT THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 41.7N 61.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 44.5N 57.3W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 01/1800Z 48.6N 49.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/0600Z 53.5N 40.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1800Z 57.0N 34.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1800Z 60.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1800Z 62.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1800Z 64.0N 12.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
