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| #146000 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 14.Aug.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT... BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE WAY. THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 23.9N 91.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 24.8N 92.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 25.9N 94.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 27.0N 96.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 27.8N 98.6W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
