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| #146046 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 15.Aug.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RAGGED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED. EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA IS INCONCLUSIVE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN TWO APPARENT CLOUD SYSTEM CENTERS. GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT AROUND 1200 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER LATER TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR LANDFALL BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. STILL...THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. EVEN IF THE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...IT WOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 3...IF NOT SOONER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 24.6N 91.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 25.3N 93.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.4N 95.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 27.3N 97.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 28.0N 98.9W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
