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| #146093 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 15.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2007 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
