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| #146095 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 15.Aug.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007 A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SO FAR THE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25- KNOT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 25.4N 93.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 25.8N 95.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 97.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 27.0N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
