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| #146146 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 15.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2007 A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 47.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 50SE 50SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 47.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 47.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 54.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 58.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.1N 62.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 69.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
