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| #146202 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 15.Aug.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...WITH THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. AT PRESENT...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER ONLY A FAIRLY SMALL AREA ABOUT 50 TO 75 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT OVER THE CENTER...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE. AT LANDFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT...RATHER THAN A WIND EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE A SHORT-TERM WESTWARD JOG...A MORE REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12. A CONTINUATION OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL TOMORROW MORNING...WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 26.5N 95.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 27.4N 97.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 28.4N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/1200Z 29.3N 100.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
