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| #146205 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 15.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2007 AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 50.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 50.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 53.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.2N 57.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.8N 61.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.3N 64.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.3N 71.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 78.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
