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| #146251 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 16.Aug.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIN REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. NOAA BUOY 42019 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 32 KT AND VELOCITY DATA FROM THE CORPUS CHRISTI WSR88D INDICATE WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. WHILE THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...ERIN STILL HAS 6-12 MORE HOURS OVER WATER SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ERIN HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER TERM MOTION YIELDS AND INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 300/10. A CONTINUATION OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 27.3N 96.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 98.1W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/0600Z 28.8N 99.9W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN |
